What is PDO?

As a statistic, PDO is simple – shooting percentage plus save percentage. While that might not seem like much, this statistic is attempting to capture “puck luck” with a number, a proxy measure of how fortunate a team or player is. While there are absolutely flaws to PDO, not many stats attempt to do what it is trying to communicate.

A high PDO means that a team is scoring a high proportion of their shots and/or conceding a smaller proportion of goals against them. This is what teams ideally strive for, but what PDO tracks is how teams regress to the mean over the course of a season. Teams should usually always end up with PDOs around 100, as with every shot there are two outcomes: a save, or a goal. By the end of the year, each team’s shooting percentage plus save percentage should equal 100 as they play the same number of games against the same number of teams.

But this is a sim, not real life. While real life hockey has more randomness, a simulator trying it's best to replicate real life hockey won't be 100%. The Sim has a set formula, and randomness is less likely to happen. With that said, teams on top of the PDO chart are typically the "better" teams, but not always. These are teams with better goal scorers, and usually better goaltending, which is a recipe to be a PDO 'sweetheart'.

Let's take a look at the BRHL PDO ranking as of today’s date.

There are no surprises in this first group of 5. All 5 of these teams have winning records and are amongst the league leaders in points. The Red Wings are the class of the league, so it's no surprise to see their PDO at 104.1. A team with good scoring and good goaltending will put you at the top. The Red Wings have the league’s best shooting percentage and leagues best save percentage. The Sabres on the other hand have a lower shooting percentage then the Red Wings. The Sabres shooting percentage ranks them 7th in the league, while their save percentage ranks them 3rd. Georgiev has been a big part of the Sabres success this season. The Flames have the league’s 3rd best shooting percentage and 5th best save percentage making them, in my opinion, the toughest team in the league outside of the Red Wings. Their combination of scoring and goaltending rivals only the Red Wings. The Devils and Predators are complete opposites and round out the top 5. The Devils success has come largely from their shooting percentage (4th best) while their save percentage (10th best) hasn't been quite as good, but not bad by any means. While Markstrom has been good, the team does allow a lot of goals against compared to the top teams. The Predators on the other hand are benefitting largely from their goaltending as they rank 2nd in Save Percentage off the back of Gustavsson but rank only 21st in shooting percentage. If the Preds can find some extra scoring, it would greatly benefit them and make them a legit contender.

The next 5 teams have a few surprises thrown in. The Sharks, Capitals and Blues are all good teams and are right up there with the Devils and Predators. The Sharks shooting percentage is a bit low (12th best), but their save percentage (3rd best) is right up there with the Wings and Predators. Schmid and his 99SC turned out to be Sumit's best move of the offseason. The Capitals have had above average shooting (6th best) and decent goaltending (11th best). The Capitals aren’t particularly strong, but have no weaknesses. They can mostly stand pat and be confident they'll be a playoff team. The two surprises on this list are the Rangers and Flyers, both teams are outside a playoff spot at the moment. This is where "luck" comes into play. It seems the Rangers and Flyers have benefitted the most from the sims randomness. The Rangers rank 2nd in the league in shooting percentage but only 19th in save percentage. Doesn't seem sustainable but who knows, its a sim after all. I believe the Rangers high shooting percentage has to do with their defense scoring a lot of their goals. 4 for the top 5 scorers on the Rangers are defensemen. The Flyers rank 13th in shooting percentage and 8th in save percentage. Above average numbers all around but Sorokin has been the difference maker so far. This team may still want to add some offense if they want to be one of the top 8 teams in the East.

I have lumped the next 4 teams together as they are the last ones to finish with a PDO over 100. All 4 teams are over .500 and comfortably in a playoff spot (besides the Lightning). The Avalanche rank 14th in shooting percentage and 10th in save percentage. Solid numbers all around but goaltending has been their strength up to this point. The Avalanche don't need to make any drastic moves at this point. The Islanders are in a similar situation just reversed, ranking 11th in shooting percentage and 14th in save percentage. Vasilevskiy hasnt been his usual self, this team could be a lot different with a well rated Vasilevskiy. The Lightning have drastic differences between their shooting percentage (22nd best) and save percentage (6th best). The offense will need to improve if the Lightning want to make the playoffs. Lastly, the Canadiens have benefitted from their offense with a shooting percentage ranking 10th overall, but a save percentage ranking only 19th overall. The Canadiens may want to look at some goaltending upgrades.

The next 9 teams are all in the 99 range for PDO. Any good team showing up here would be a case of bad "luck" overall. Teams I would like to single out are the Oilers, Panthers, Maple Leafs and Bruins. The first three teams are all in a playoff spot at the moment. The Maple Leafs are just barely hanging on but have games in hand. The Maple Leafs rank 24th in shooting percentage, but rank 12th in save percentage. It's clear where this teams strenghts lie at the moment. If the Maple Leafs want to make the playoffs, they'll do what they can to not trade Andersen or Gibson, but it appears playoffs are not their aspiration. The Oilers are the best of the teams under 100 PDO. Their shooting percentage ranks 15th overall and their save percentage ranks 21st overall. Its clear some goaltending upgrades are in order for the Oilers as Hellebuyck just ain't doing the job. The Panthers offense has not been good as they rank 23rd in shooting percentage and 15th in save percentage. This is a team that will need to improve their offense as their current playoff spot is not guarenteed. The tandem of Stalock and Raanta has done well for them though. Lastly, the Bruins. The Bruins could easily squeak into a playoff spot, but for that to happen their 30th ranked shooting percentage has to improve. This has probably been the most 'unlucky' team when it comes to their offense. Their 13th ranked save percentage has been steady though, Saros has been doing a wonderful job. I'm not sure where the Bruins go from here, do they hope their puck luck turns around or do they make a move on offense?.

The rest of the teams I won't get into much. There is a reason they are at the bottom of the PDO rankings, they are all bad. I believe only the Stars and Hurricanes came into the season without tanking in mind. For all the hate that the Hurricanes goaltending has been receiving this season, their 29th ranked shooting percentage hasn't helped.

Full rankings below.