Series Overview – New York Islanders vs Buffalo Sabres

The New York Islanders, who have now finished atop their division for a fifth straight season, enter the playoffs with a well-earned reputation for structure, defensive responsibility, and efficient special teams. While they may not be as dominant as in years past, they’re still a deep and well-rounded team with top-tier leadership in Aleksander Barkov and Charlie McAvoy.

The Buffalo Sabres, on the other hand, had a bit of a rollercoaster season. Offensively, they’re among the most potent teams in the East, but defensive lapses and an average penalty kill have held them back. Still, they’re dangerous, especially from the back-end.

Despite Buffalo’s scoring ability, the Islanders won all three regular-season matchups—an important psychological edge heading into this series.

Offense

New York Islanders
The Islanders' attack is driven by intelligent, two-way players. Aleksanders Barkov (38-64-102) continues to be a model of consistency and elite play-driving. While their offense isn’t quite as high-octane as some others in the playoffs, their depth ensures constant pressure, and they’re dangerous on both the power play and 5-on-5. Travis Konecny (29-44-73) finished 2^nd in team scoring. The offense was spread out from the top six. Matthew Tkachuk (31-40-71) also had a very successful season. Kyle Connor (30-36-66) provides a lot of offense on that 2^nd line. Rounding out the top six is Jason Dickison (31-33-64), who had a career-high, as well as Eeli Tolvanen (13-31-44) who had one of his more successful campaigns.

Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo’s offense can be explosive. Dylan Larkin (47-44-91) was one of the best goal scorers in the league this season, and he’s supported by a group of smart, creative forwards. The Sabres are at their best when they control the pace and capitalize on the power play, but inconsistency and defensive breakdowns have led to them often chasing games. Pavel Zacha (31-40-71) seemed to mesh well with Larkin, who finished 20 points above him. Also on that line was Patrick Kane (26-38-64) who is enjoying his last few seasons in the BRHL. Rounding out the top six is Dylan Cozens (19-41-60), Dawson Mercer (17-33-50) and Gabriel Vilardi (25-21-46).

Advantage: New York Islanders

Defense

New York Islanders
New York's blue line is structured, tough, and experienced. While they lack elite offensive depth after Charlie McAvoy (12-56-68) and Brandon Carlo (14-37-51), they excel at limiting high-danger chances and controlling zone exits. Their ability to slow down transition attacks could prove crucial against a team like Buffalo. Expected to lead in that role is Ryan Pulock (4-27-31) and Alex Vlasic (5-22-27). Rounding out the top five is Scott Mayfield (4-19-23).

Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo's blue line scored a ton of points, which bodes well for offensive zone time and puck control. However, this often came at the expense of defensive structure. The team allows too many shots and odd-man rushes, which could play into the hands of the Islanders’ methodical forecheck. Both Kris Letang (15-51-66) and Evan Bouchard (15-51-66) led the team in scoring on defense. Drew Doughty (9-52-61) also had an impressive season. The top three here can perform exceptionally well on both ends of the ice. Rounding out the top six are three stay at home defensemen in Ryan McDonagh (8-24-32), Connor Murphy (8-20-28) and deadline acquisition Dimitry Orlov (8-19-27).

Advantage: Buffalo Sabres

Goaltending

New York Islanders
The Islanders’ decision to ride Semyon Varlamov (40-21-7, 2.89, .908%) has worked well enough, but the X-factor here is Andrei Vasilevskiy (10-3-1, 2.20, .927%) on the bench. If Varlamov stumbles, they can turn to one of the best BRHL playoff goalies of the past decade. Either way, this is one of the more stable goaltending situations in the East.

Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo’s tandem performed admirably, but they face too much rubber, which inflates even strong performances. Cam Talbot (32-20-6, 2.70, .914%) can keep them in games, but he’ll need to be stellar and consistent if Buffalo hopes to keep pace with the Islanders’ controlled pace. Alexandar Gerogiev (16-7-1, 2.74, .911%) can step in when needed.

Advantage: New York Islanders

By The Numbers

New York Islanders
Special teams lean slightly in favor of the Islanders due to their discipline and consistency. The Islanders finished 6^th best on the Power Play and 6^th best on the Penalty Kill. Their goal differential was pretty poor for a team who finished atop their division, with a +39. Despite this, the Islanders were able to win all three of their matchups versus the Buffalo Sabres this season.

Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo’s Penalty Kill is a concern, especially against a team that has the poise and puck movement New York possesses. Their Power Play will need to maintain their high level as it finished 5^th best in the league. The Sabres will need to keep the shots down to a minimum and play a well structured game if they want to win this series. They have yet to beat New York this season.

Predictions
While the Buffalo Sabres can put up goals in bunches, the New York Islanders’ ability to shut games down late, combined with their elite special teams and goaltending depth, gives them a notable edge. I have the New York Islanders winning this in six games.