How does the 2020 Class Stack Up
Analyzing gradings at same point each year
There hasn't been much discussion about this years draft class. Does that mean it's a normal class? Not too strong, not too weak? Hardly, in many ways it's a very unique draft class, one that I don't know we've seen.
Please note, grades don't stack up. If there's 2 players graded as top 3 picks, and 8 as top 10 picks. That means we've graded 10 total players.
Top 3 Grade
- By my grading system, there isn't a single top 3 draft prospect available. These are usually regarded as can't miss players, guys bound for the HOF if all goes according to plan.
- There simply isn't anyone in this class you can say that about. Since 2010, the only other class that didn't have anyone graded out as a top 3 pick was 2018.
- We typically average 2 per year (Dahlin and Svechnikov last year). The best year I have on record? 2016 had a remarkable 7 players who I had graded as top 3 players (McDavid, Eichel, Provorov, Rantanen, Marner, Aho, Werenski)
Top 10 Grade
- These are players who are slam dunk, top 10 picks, a bump could see them as top tier guys, but they appear bound for long, successful careers as top of the line players.
- This year is the second largest pool of players I've seen graded this way, with 10 (2017 had 11). Its a deep pool, and really there's arguments to be made for anyone to go anywhere in the top 10. We're seeing this play out with the talks and discussions and the "fluidity" at the top of the draft.
- On average there is 7 players who fit in this criteria, meaning this class is stronger than normal when it comes to this tier of players
1st Round Grade
- These players aren't slam dunk stars, they look real good, some will no doubt rise, but they give us an indication of how deep round 1 is.
- This year there are 23 players with first round grades. Meaning we have a total of 33 players graded out as 1st rounders, this is actually tied (with 2019) as the 4th highest amount on record, indicating a good, deep draft. (2017-36)(2016-35)(2014-34).
- On average 19 players are typically graded in this range
2nd Round Grade
- 24 players achieve a 2nd round grading in this draft. Indicating a solid pool. This is up from the average of 22.
3rd/4th Round Grade
- 61 players fit the bill this year (average is 59). Again, indicating a well spread out draft class.
5th-7th Round Grade
- 127 players grade out in this round. Way more than will ever go. This isn't abnormal, it's other classes, euro FA, College FA, etc. Filtering into the class. A normal year has 111.
What does it all mean?
- It means this draft is fairly normal. It lacks the bonafide no doubt top picks, but it's deeper than most in the next tier and with first round grades.
- This type of draft largely indicates that predicting the top 10 will be darn near impossible, it's going to be largely preference as players are rated out similarly.