GM Historical Draft Rankings Explanation - #25 (and the others)

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

Unfortunately, because the recent drafts (2018-2020) are too recent to give reliable data, I have not included. In fact, even 2017 is a bit too recent, but I did include it. Because of the omission of recent BRHL draft classes there are a few GMs who won't make the rankings they are (in no particular order):

- Greg A

- Toby C

- PJ Jennings

- Dan Sanders

- Steph V (will he ever actually make the rankings??)

- Pat B

- Al Wehr (self proclaimed 0.00 batting average)

 

Now that those guys are out of the way, lets see who's actually made the list. I'll start with #25 only for today, since this article also includes those guys above and the explanation of the ranking system. Future articles will include 4-5 at a time, with less mumbo jumbo explanation. So, without further adoo...

 

#25: Steve V: -4.31GP & -1.66Pts

Shit. Seriously? I go through all this work, and end up last. Yeesh. On average, my draft picks play 4.31 fewer games than expected and score 1.66 fewer points than expected.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 32.18 Jakob Chychrun 14
Worst GP -39.02 Duncan Siemens 15
Best Pts 26.54 Jake Guentzel 83
Worst Pts -20.88 Noah Hanifin 5

Chychrun and Guentzel were solid picks, though both are now elsewhere. Hanifin wasn't really that bad but he doesn't produce points as you would like out of a 5th OV pick. Good thing I traded him to Rumpy. Siemens was just plan awful pick.

 

Year-by-year performance:

Oof that's not pretty. Considering how many picks I had in 2013, its quite unfortunate that I wasted so many. I used to not really put much effort into the draft, to be honest, and it shows. The last few years I've actually put some effort into drafting, and it shows with better results in recent years. Lets hope the trend continues!

0 is only for now. Too soon but some really good picks coming soon
Going to love this thanks Steve!!!
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