GM Historical Draft Rankings #21 - #24

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

#24: Tim S: -3.54GP & -1.59Pts

Tim lands at #24. With 6 drafts on record, he was mostly mediocre, but with a poor performance with 2015 with 15 picks, he lands in second last place.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 33.16 Jordan Martinook 65
Worst GP -28.27 Yevgeni Svenchnikov 21
Best Pts 14.04 Yanni Gourde 143
Worst Pts -12.61 Yevgeni Svechnikov 21

I wonder if he thought he was getting the other Svechnikov at 21st Overall in 2016? Gourde was a solid pick, however.

 

Year-by-year performance:

2015 hurts Tim badly. He had a total of 12 picks that year, and didn't really do particularly well on any of them. His best pick of the lot was #10OV Anthony DeAngelo. He had only 1 pick in 2016 and it looks like a big miss with Svech in the first round.

 

#23: Rob B: -3.28GP & -1.73Pts

Rob has been around right from the start, and has consistently drafted below average. Of note was his 2009 draft with a whopping 26 picks. He did hit big in 2016 with Branden Tanev in the 5th round.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 48.05 Brandon Tanev 132
Worst GP -28.79 Cody Hodgson 3
Best Pts 28.69 Adam Henrique 93
Worst Pts -12.61 Cody Hodgson 3

Rob needed a big draft in 2016, with a total of 26 pics. Starting with Hodgson at 3rd OV was a rough start, and it didn't get much better after that. He did at least hit on Henrique in the 4th round. Also of note, was Rob taking Jared Cowen 11th OV in the 2017 draft... oopsie.

 

Year-by-year performance:

As mentioned, Tim struggled in the 2009 draft where he needed to hit on more of his 26 picks. He did have a gem in 2016 with Tanev, but has otherwise been consistently below average.

 

#22: Tyler B: -3.01GP & -1.34Pts

The first Tyler to make the list. Tyler B only has a few years of history to work with here, so his results are probably not that statistically sound, but he didn't do as well with his 20+ picks in 2016 as he would have liked.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 19.18 Adam Gaudette 111
Worst GP -27.14 Jakub Zboril 25
Best Pts 7.50 Adam Gaudette 111
Worst Pts -9.95 Jakub Zboril 25

Maybe its a bit to early to tell, but Zboril is not looking like a good pick at this point. Gaudette at 111th is a decent late round pick.

 

Year-by-year performance:

Tyler had a bunch of picks in 2016, and ended up with what looks like a slightly below average draft. Charlie Lindrgren in the 6th round could still turn out to be an NHLer. Phillippe Myers in the 2nd round of that draft could also turn out still. Maybe its a bit to small a sample size to judge Tyler, but alas, here we are.

 

#22: Jared M: -3.96GP & -1.41Pts

A small sample size too, Jared has only had 15 picks through 2015-2017. He mostly underwhelmed in those three drafts.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 13.26 Jack Roslovic 30
Worst GP -22.00 Michael McLeod 12
Best Pts 6.40 Jack Roslovic 30
Worst Pts -9.30 Michael McLeod 12

Jared's first two picks in 2016 are looking pretty good (Chabot - 14, Roslovic - 30), but other than that his 2016 and 2017 drafts werent great. I have a sense that he has improved lately, but we will have to wait to see. I actually liked McLeod in that draft, which just emphasizes it was probably a bad pick haha

 

Year-by-year performance:

Jared did have an OK pick in 2015 with Barbashyov, but even he hasn't put up as many points as would be hoped for his draft position. Jared's 2016 and 2017 drafts were not great.

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