It’s been awhile but it’s that time again! As in previous years, I thought that it would be interesting to see how all of the teams stack up against one another heading into Free Agency.

Who are the strongest teams offensively? Which teams have the best group of defensively minded forwards? What teams are strong in one area, but weak in another?

As always, firepower will once again be the primary focus - SC and PA ratings. But and in real hockey, we can’t dismiss the importance of defense so I’ve included a breakdown of DF ratings; but for forwards only.

Again, this is because most teams have 80+ DF rated dmen for 4 or more of their top 6 so I felt including them would be a bit irrelevant.

Please note that all pending UFAs were ignored; but, all unsigned RFAs are included since the assumption is that they would be re-signed eventually, ignoring any potential sign-and-trade deals.

Please also note that this is an examination of team rosters on an organizational level; there are plenty of teams with guys that have 70+PA or 70+DF stashed on their farms. And while I know some if not all of them will start on the farm when the season starts, it’s still team depth.

Ratings of 90 and above are generally considered ‘elite’ or star player ratings whereas, ratings between 80 - 89 are considered top six player ratings, and ratings of 70 to 79 are generally considered secondary scoring ratings.

One major thing to remember when looking at these charts is that this doesn’t mean that the Oilers have 2 guys with elite scoring and 4 guys with secondary passing abilities. In a lot of these cases, the scorers and passers shown on a team are the same player; i.e. Conner McDavid is a 95 SC and a 99 PA.

Here’s how the league shakes out heading into FA:

 
Here’s how grading worked:

90+ SC = 3.5 multiplier; 90+ PA = 3.0  multiplier
80+ SC = 2.5 multiplier; 80+ PA = 2.0  multiplier
70+ SC = 1.5 multiplier; 70+ PA = 1.0  multiplier
80+ DF = 1.0 multiplier; 70+ DF = 0.5  multiplier

I.e. the Avalanche have three players with a 90+ SC rating so they got awarded 3 x 3.5 = 10.5, and so on.


As an extra bit of analysis, here’s how all of the teams stack up to one another conference wise:

So, what does this all mean?

In terms of overall high-end offence, the best offensive team in the league heading into free agency this season would be Joe and his NY Islanders.  He arguably possesses the most balanced team in the league in terms of scoring with three 90+ SC players matched by three 90+ PA players and five 80+ SC players matched with six 80+ PA players. He’s a little light in terms of secondary scoring and defensive forwards, but with that much high-end firepower he may not need them and can easily match up with any team in the league in scoring. 

Honorable mention goes to Leon and his Edmonton Oilers who are arguably the top team in the West.  He too posses a nice balance of elite and top six scoring but also boasts some nice depth in terms of secondary scoring; he’s one of the few teams in the league that can roll four complete forward lines with all players having at least 70+ SC. As with the Isles, the Oilers only real deficit is his lack of defensive forward depth.

The biggest “surprise” to me was how weak Anthony’s Flyers are considering that there are two expansion teams in the league. His roster doesn’t have any high-end scoring and any real defensive forwards. Let’s hope that his draft picks turn out or he’s going to be in a perpetual re-build mode for a long time.

Another surprise this year is that unlike the past few seasons, the distribution of firepower is very balanced between the West and the East!

The East edges the West very slightly in the elite 90+ SC player category but gives up ground in the high end 80+ SC player category.  The only area where any one league has a clear advantage is in the 70-79 PA group where the West has it over the East… yay West!

In terms of distribution, it looks like the West has it over the East so far prior to FA this year. The only team in the West that does not have at least one player with an 80+ SC is the Vancouver Canucks whereas the Sabers, Capitals, Panthers and Flyers in the East all lack players with at least an 80+SC rating.

Same with PA; only the Nucks in the West are devoid of at least one player with a 80+ PA rating while in the East it’s the Capitals, Panthers and Flyers along with the Penguins in this category.


Outlook:

As it stands, the top three teams in the West should be The Oilers, Knights and the Stars while the top three teams in the East should be the Islanders, Bruins and the Blue Jackets.

On the other end of the spectrum, the bottom three teams in the East should be the Caps, Panthers and Flyers; though it’s not looking very pretty for Tim’s Devils at this juncture either.

In the West, the list of projected bottom feeding teams is a bit more surprising with Kevin’s Flames making the bottom three followed by Rob’s Canucks and Rex’s Super Stoners.

Now of course there are other factors involved such as the make up of goalies and defense on everyone’s rosters and a lot can change between now and the start of the season and FA can change the fortunes of a number of teams as there is a lot of fire power up for grabs this season.

There are two ‘elite’ 90+ SC and nine 80+ SC players and four 90+ PA and eight 80+ PA players passers up for grabs in this year’s UFA crop; and as usual, they are going to be in demand.

So start planning your trade and UFA strategies now folks!