GM Historical Draft Rankings #18 - #20

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

#20: Joseph B: -2.56GP & -1.06Pts

A strong draft in 2013, but below average since.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 26.53 Josh Anderson 147
Worst GP -24.29 Zach Sensyshyn 27
Best Pts 14.25 Max Domi 12
Worst Pts -13.11 Haydn Fleury 20

Joeseph B (not to be confused with Joe B) looks to have hit on Max Domi and Josh Anderson in 2014 and 2013 respectively. Haydn Fleury could still turn into a solid NHLer (and is penalized a bit on point production due to being a stay at home D), but Sensyshyn looks like a solid BUST.

 

Year-by-year performance:

As mentioned, 2013 was a decent draft for Joseph, but the following years weren't great. Very few NHLers in there at all.

 

#19: Garrett H: -1.97GP & -1.14Pts

Well, we now know which Hansford is the better drafter...  Long-time BRHLer Garrett H lands at #19. He's had some pretty solid drafts, and some pretty horrid ones too.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 52.38 Samuel Girard 60
Worst GP -44.45 Alex Cherepanov 8
Best Pts 30.42 Pierre-Luc Dubois 13
Worst Pts -25.88 Alex Cherepanov 8

Well, having your 8th OV pick die on you is a tough one. Cherepanov definetly hurts Garretts overall score, but with a total of 86 picks to his name, I don't think it would move the needle much if we took away the Cherepanov pick. Garrett has hit a few solid picks over the years, with Girard being one of the best bang for your buck picks yet.

 

Year-by-year performance:

2009 and 2013 look like solid drafts for Garrett, and 2017 is shaping up nicely too. That said, there are a few rough ones too. Notably 2010 and 2011. Scanning throug Garrett's draft history, you see a real interesting mix of some mid/late round gems and some serious early round flops. Garrett is quite and up and down drafter it seems.

 

#22: Devon C: -2.67GP & -0.38Pts

Our first Cordell to make the list. Devon has a history of 4 drafts to grade him on. Interesting to note is that his picks on average have pretty poor GP, but have quite high Pts. Maybe a bang-or bust drafter?

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 32.30 Damon Severson 41
Worst GP -48.99 Michael Dal Colle 2
Best Pts 32.93 Leon Draisaitl 3
Worst Pts -36.40 Michael Dal Colle 2

The famous Dal Colle pick really brings Devon down. He made a nice pick with Drai however, and Severson was a solid second round pick no doubt. Other notable picks were Derrick Pouliot at 15 (bad), Andreas Athanasiou at 94 (good), Goldobin at 19 (bad). 

 

Year-by-year performance:

Solid draft in 2013, but not great since. The amazing thing is his 2015 draft had Draisaitl, Ehlers and Fiala (3, 6 and 12), but those good picks were dragged down by Dal Colle, Goldobin and Blandisi (2, 19 and 49). Strange...

 

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