GM Historical Draft Rankings - Correction: Extra Last and Extra, Extra Last

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

** I noticed a mistake in my spreadsheet that was actually giving a boost to some teams with very few picks, instead of slightly downgrading them due to the lack of history. While most didn't see much of a change, there are two GMs who were originally inside the top 18, but fall to the very bottom. As such, everyone ranked so far moves up 2 slots, and the following GMs will drop to the bottom.**

 

#Extra Extra Last: Richard C: -2.80GP & -2.83Pts

Sorry Rich, You land in last because of a lower than average draft record, and the fact you have only made 2 picks!! Crazy that after all these years in the league you only drafted two players.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 2.01 Brendan Lemieux 34
Worst GP -7.62 Mike Amadio 76
Best Pts -2.46 Mike Amadio 34
Worst Pts -3.21 Brendan Lemieux 76

Well, Lemieux was an OK pick I guess. Amadio, not as much? I dunno what else to say here. Hard to analyze two shitty players. Neither was drafted particularily high, so hard to really gauge things.

 

Year-by-year performance:

I guess Rich drafted both guys in 2015. What a year!

 

#Extra Last: Larry L: -3.21GP & -1.20Pts

Sorry Larry. Much like Rich, you are hindered by a small data set, and poor overall draft performance. A few more years and I expect to see you creep up the rankings.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP -2.00 Daniel Brickley 193
Worst GP -4.51 Joseph Anderson 51
Best Pts -0.76 Daniel Brickley 193
Worst Pts -1.27 Joseph Anderson 51

Yikes, none of Larry's draft picks up to 2017 performed above expectations. Not ideal track record. I do suspect that Larry will see some improvements in more recent drafts, but time will tell.

 

Year-by-year performance:

Only one year on record for Larry. 9 picks, and not much to show for that year unfortunately. Brickley might become something still, but I think he was a stretch as a second rounder. We will see...

 

Agree with the assessment but Brickley wasn't a 2nd rounder
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