GM Historical Draft Rankings #11 - #13

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

Rankings So Far:

#25 - Rich

#24 - Larry

#23 - Steve

#22 - Tim S

#21 - Rob B

#20 - Tyler B

#19 - Jared M

#18 - Joseph B

#17 - Garrett H

#16 - Devon C

#15 - Junya K

#14 - Joe B

 

#13: Rex L: -0.07GP & -1.17Pts

Rex (Bryce) comes in at #13. He has 50 picks to his name, and is pretty much getting average value for those picks. He seems to be better at nailing the mid/low level guys who don't produce much by make a career than he is at landing the heavy point producers.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 46.99 Kyle Clifford 48
Worst GP -27.58 Dylan Strome 6
Best Pts 15.30 Connor Brown 132
Worst Pts -23.62 Dylan Strome 6

As mentioned, Rex has done well with grabbing those career 3rd/4th line guys,and Clifford is a great example of that. Rex also made a great pick with Connor Brown 132nd in 2013. On the other hand, is it too early to call Dylan Strome a bust? Some other notable picks (good and bad) include Riley Nash (15th, 2008), Brayden Schenn (7, 2009), Quinton Howden (27, 2011), Joonas Donskoi (66 - 2011), Darcy Kuemper (71 - 2011), Jordan Weal (76 - 2011) and David Rittich (148 - 2017).

 

Year-by-year performance:

2008, 2013 and 2017 were all good drafts. 2012 was a dud but he only had 3 picks. As we have seen often, a draft year with a ton of picks (2011) yielded mediocre results overall, but with all those picks he did manage to add some decent players throughout the draft (see above for some names).

 

#12: Tyler R: -1.58GP & 0.37Pts

Rumpy has drafted above average from a points perspective, but below from a Games Played perspective. I suspect he favours drafting forwards, and higher offensive upside guys vs, d-men and two-way players. Either way, he has done reasonably well through 26 total picks.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 18.34 Tyler Myers 11
Worst GP -25.13 Jared Knight 31
Best Pts 17.52 Teuvo Teravainen 11
Worst Pts -17.60 Jacob Markstrom 13

A couple of interesting guys in here Myers looks good from a GP perspective, and for an 11th OV pick, I'd say overall he was a "hit". He hasn't put up huge points, but he's a decent overall d-man. Teravainen was a solid pick, also at 11th OV - and I think he is actually still with Rumpy's team. Markstrom looks bad from a points perspective, but he's a goalie so no worries there. This negative number didn't factor into the overall score, but it shows up in the summary unfortunately. Also, I have no idea who Jared Knight is - thats a shitty pick.

 

Year-by-year performance:

2013 stands out, but he only had one pick. He made the most of it, taking Teravainen 11th. 2014 and 2017 were both also decent with Burakovsky, Laine and Keller coming from those drafts. Overall, his other drafts were mostly average - with 2011 being probably the worst. This is were we see Martin Marincin and Jared Knight taken late 1st/early 2nd to drag down his good picks of Seguin and Skinner (2nd and 3rd OV).

 

#11: Leon Y: 0.54GP & -0.22Pts

King Leon just misses out on the top 10. Like Rumpy, Leon has 26 picks to his name, and has overall performed about average, and actually slightly above average I would say.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 34.92 Jesper Fast 96
Worst GP -19.91 Christian Thomas 35
Best Pts 12.87 Jonathan Huberdeau 4
Worst Pts -14.81 Brett Connolly 6

Jesper Fast was a solid 4th round pick, and Huberdeau was a home run at 4th OV. Unfortunately, Connolly doesnt seem to be living up to his draft status, and Christian Thomas seems has ended up a total bust. A few other notable good and bad picks include Michael Chaput (126 - 2011), Matt Nieto (51 - 2012), Reid Boucher (94 - 2012) and MacKenzie Weegar (154 - 2014)!!

 

Year-by-year performance:

Only 3 drafts to draw from, but at total of 26 picks. As we have seen before, Leon ended up "average" for his big draft of 2011. Thats a decent performance, as we have yet to see someone really have a good year with a ton of picks. Usually they seem to come out about average, or a bit below. Leon's ranking is cranked up by his strong 2012 draft, which featured some decent mid/late round picks as highlighted above. That was also his Huberdeau draft.

 

For the record I don’t want my name on Rex’s pre Seattle drafts. I never traded him my list when he was philly LOL
Wow I’m top 10!
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