GM Historical Draft Rankings #8 - #10

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

Rankings So Far:

#25 - Rich

#24 - Larry

#23 - Steve

#22 - Tim S

#21 - Rob B

#20 - Tyler B

#19 - Jared M

#18 - Joseph B

#17 - Garrett H

#16 - Devon C

#15 - Junya K

#14 - Joe B

#13 - Rex L

#12 - Tyler R

#11 - Leon Y

 

#10: Joel M: 2.53GP & 0.31Pts

Joel squeaks into the top 10 with a strong overall performance for both GP and Pts. He is hindered a bit by only having 7 picks on record, but he has done well with them.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 16.11 Christian Fischer 26
Worst GP -4.43 Matej Tomek 160
Best Pts 3.35 Christian Fischer 26
Worst Pts -1.49 Matej Tomek 160

Joel doesn't have a ton of picks under his belt, and he only has one 1st rounder (Fischer). Having hit on fisher, certainly helps, as a miss on a high pick really damages your score. He also hit on Ethan Bear and Mason Appleton. His other 4 picks are misses, but since none were higher than 90th, they didn't really hurt his score too much.

 

Year-by-year performance:

We only have 2 years of history to work from with Joel. Interestingly, his three "hits" were all in 2016. He had 2 misses in later rounds of 2016, and 2 misses in 2017. As mentioned, the only 1st or 2nd rounders he had were in 2016, and he seems to have done OK with both. Will be interesting to see how future drafts pan out for Joel.

 

#9: Eric F: 3.04GP & 0.58Pts

Another GM who cracks the top 10, but doesn't have many picks to his name. Eric comes in at 9th, with solid GP and Pts rating, but only 6 picks to base his score on.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 25.42 Zach Aston-Reese 68
Worst GP -3.34 Dmitry Sokolov 85
Best Pts 17.52 Zach Aston-Reese 68
Worst Pts -1.26 Dmitry Sokolov 85

Aston-Reese was a good pick for a 3rd rounder. I remember when Eric picked him, because I was hoping to get him a bit later. Instead I took Vecchione... oops. Aston-Reese gets the advantoge as he was an overager, and virtually stepped right into the NHL, so has accumulated more GP and Pts than a typical pick from that draft right from the get-go. The only other pick that Eric has made that played NHL games was Jerabek... Much like Joel, Eric's highest ever pick (Aston-Reese) was a hit, and he missed on virtually every other pick, but since they were all quite late, he comes up with a pretty good score. It will be interesting to see how things go as Eric accumulates more picks to base his performance off of.

 

Year-by-year performance:

Not much to say that already hasn't been said. There isn't a ton of info to base his analysis off of. He has only the one year (2017) of history to work with. Eric's ranking will most certainly move as he accumulates more history. Will he go up or down?

 

#8: Bryce S: 1.53GP & -0.16Pts

Wait, does this mean Eric D comes in ahead of Bryce???? Ohhh Shiiiiitttt.

Bryce has a whopping 230 picks to his name. More than any other GM. Only one other GM has more than 100... can you guess who?

Bryce has really been quite consistent. He does well at drafting lower level guys in later rounds (hence the above average GP score). He's pretty much on par from a points perspective.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 54.69 Brenden Dillon 187
Worst GP -36.55 Scott Glennie 15
Best Pts 31.18 Sebastian Aho 15
Worst Pts -22.34 Valeri Nichushkin 6

There is a lot to unpack when you start looking at player-by-player performance. The highs and lows show an excellent pick in Dillon, but a big time miss with both Glennie and Nichushkin. Aho was a great pick. I remember hoping he would fall later in the round.

 

Year-by-year performance:

A pile of data here. Like many other GMs, the years where he had a ton of picks ended up basically average, or a bit below (2010, 2012, 2014). Bryce did have several excellent drafts back to back with 2015 and 2016. Interestingly enough, he didn't have a pick in the 1st or 2nd round of 2015, but landed the likes of Devon Toews, Ondrej Kase, Vinne Hinostroza, and Jordan Osterle in later rounds. 2016 was much different, as he landed some high end guys and some later round hits (Aho - 15th, Beauvillier - 20th, Kempny - 74th, Martinsen 196th, Lyon 164th).

 

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