GM Historical Draft Rankings #5 - #7

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

Rankings So Far:

#25 - Rich

#24 - Larry

#23 - Steve

#22 - Tim S

#21 - Rob B

#20 - Tyler B

#19 - Jared M

#18 - Joseph B

#17 - Garrett H

#16 - Devon C

#15 - Junya K

#14 - Joe B

#13 - Rex L

#12 - Tyler R

#11 - Leon Y

#10 - Joel M

#9 - Eric F

#8 - Bryce S

 

#7: Eric D: 1.44GP & 0.07Pts

Our favourite commish lands just one spot ahead of our other favourite commish. Eric squeaks in ahead of Bryce courtesy of his slightly above average pts score (compared to Bryce's slightly below average). With 65 picks on record, we have some good data to look at with Erica.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 61.84 Cody McLeod 138
Worst GP -23.99 Anton Gustafsson 25
Best Pts 33.65 Erik Karlsson 14
Worst Pts -10.07 Ty Rattie 22

A first round pick who I've never heard of (Gustafsson), and the bust Ty Rattie cover the low-lights for Eric. Karlsson was a solid pick at 14 (and shows that not all D get hindered by the rankings), and McLeod has had a pretty good career for 138th OV pick. Some other interesting picks include Carl Hagelin (203) and Jake Muzzin (215), who were among Eric's 16(!) 7th round picks in 2008. Hamonic at 64 in and Holtby at 120 were great picks in 2009. Eric also has several other late round hits sprinkled throughout his draft history. If it weren't for some big misses (Gustafsson, Tikhonov, Rattie, Mirco Muller and even Maatta), Eric would be right up near the top. 

 

Year-by-year performance:

Eric has had some outstanding drafts, especially early on in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Busts in 2011 and 2012 look bad, but it really only represents 4 missed picks in those two years. It's interesting to see that aside from those good early drafts, Eric has been mostly average, if not a bit below. Will be fun to see if he can hang on in the top 10 moving forward.

 

#6: Jordan H (Doc): 0.99GP & 0.70Pts

Doc slides in ahead of Eric with a fairly strong GP and Pts score. He has a total of 87 picks to look at, and has done a pretty solid job right from the very beginning of the BRHL2. Some credit here to Garrett, who has apparently made some of these picks for Doc. Too bad Garrett can't draft as well for himself :)

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 44.94 Leo Komarov 183
Worst GP -37.17 Griffin Reinhart 13
Best Pts 32.52 Steven Stamkos 1
Worst Pts -16.68 Griffin Reinhart 13

Stamkos was a homerun. Reinhart, not so much... Komarov was an awesome pick at 183. That's some serious value of of such a late pick. With such a long track record, there are some pretty interesting duds (Sanginetti 25th, Petrecki 23rd, Nemisz 28th, Reinhart and Matt Finn 26th), and some nice steals (Reimer 122nd, Pateryn 173rd, Reilly Smith 110th, Cizikas 135th, Hyman 135th, Coleman 114th, Komarov, Miles Wood 132nd).

 

Year-by-year performance:

Jordan has been pretty consistent overall. Contrary to most other GMs, he actually did really well in years where he had a lot of picks (2008, 2010, 2012). He's really only had one serious dud year, and that was in 2013 where he completely bombed on his 5 picks, including two first round misses in Reinhart and Finn. Otherwis, he has been pretty strong throughout.

 

#5: Kevin S: 1.13GP & 0.59Pts

The other member of the 200+ pick club, Kevin has made almost as many picks as the supreme leader Bryce, but has certainly got good value for his picks. There are a ton of picks to look at here, so lets go...

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 59.82 Ryan Reaves 195
Worst GP -23.69 Patrick Sieloff 36
Best Pts 57.33 Nikita Kucherov 65
Worst Pts -14.33 Sam Bennett 4

Kucherov as a 3rd rounder is for sure one of the best picks ever. Sieloff was a big time dud (though, he was a 2nd rounder); and Sam Bennett just hasn't lived up to his draft position. Ryan Reaves representes some incredible longevity for a 7th round pick or whatever 195 works out to be. Some other notable misses include Michal Repik (31st), David Rundblad (21st), Tim Erixon (22nd), and Emerson Etem (26th). Too early to tell if Tyler Parsons at 28th in 2017 will pan out or not. Despite these misses, Kevin has excelled mostly in the early round. He doesn't have as many great late round picks as some others, but there are a few beyond Komarov such as Dumoulin (68th), Vatanen (102nd), Klingberg (87th), Ferland (95th), Krug (187th!), Gostisbehere (62nd), Tierney (72nd), Will Butcher (129th), Lindblom (91st), Wallmark (92nd) and Kaprizov (103rd) among others.

 

Year-by-year performance:

Look at all those picks. Haha. Kevin has mostly drafted about average throughout the years. A big year in 2011 and a few other solid years have pushed up his overall score. One thing Kev seems to do well is not missing much on his 1st rounders, which really helps his overall score. His drafting has levelled out of late (like several others). I'm wondering if the overall strength of the league has improved with time, and made it so that some of these top drafters don't necessarily do as well in the draft as they used to.

 

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