GM Historical Draft Rankings #3 - #4

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.


Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.


Rankings So Far:

#25 - Rich

#24 - Larry

#23 - Steve

#22 - Tim S

#21 - Rob B

#20 - Tyler B

#19 - Jared M

#18 - Joseph B

#17 - Garrett H

#16 - Devon C

#15 - Junya K

#14 - Joe B

#13 - Rex L

#12 - Tyler R

#11 - Leon Y

#10 - Joel M

#9 - Eric F

#8 - Bryce S

#7 - Eric D

#6 - Jordan H

#5 - Kevin S


#4: Anthony C: 2.34GP & -0.58Pts

Anthony has done well drafting players who have carved out an NHL career, though he has't done as well from a points perspective. A few defensemen drated in there certainly effects that. Anthony has also just made it over the 20game threshold to not get penalized for small sample size.


Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 70.42 Pierre-Edouard Bellemare 202
Worst GP -23.23 Jesse Puljujarvi 3
Best Pts 21.11 Alexander Kerfoot 204
Worst Pts -35.59 Jesse Puljijarvi 3

Bellemare and Kerfoot are excellent picks with both being regular NHLers, and both picks at 200+. On the other hand, Poolparty picked 3rd overall has been a bust so far. I do think he will come back to the NHL and finally find his way, but we will see. Filip Hronek was a decent 2nd round picks as well. Otherwise, Anthony's other 18 picks are not very noteworthy, but since only one of them was earlier than the 3rd round, he ends up with a solid overall ranking courtesy of Kerfoot and Bellemare. I think we honestly need a bit more time to really see how Anthony's drafting skills stack up.


Year-by-year performance:

Not a ton of history here. The 2015 draft is the bellemare draft, 2016 is Kerfoot and 2017 is Poolparty/Hronek. As mentioned, it will be interesting to see how Anthony's record comes out after a bit more draft history is analyzed in the next few years.


#3: Ty S (Sheds): 2.58GP & 4.60Pts

Sheds has actually only made 7 picks, so his score gets penalized for small sample size. Despite that, he still lands in 3rd place courtesy of a home run late first rounder.


Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 48.15 Alex DeBrincat 29
Worst GP -6.54 Ryan Collins 90
Best Pts 41.49 Alex Debrincat 29
Worst Pts -1.98 Ryan Collins 90

DeBrincat sure has worked out for Sheds. I'm sure I'm not the only one who had their eye on him in that draft, hoping he would slip to the 2nd round. The funny thing is, DeBrincat is the only player drafted by the Preds to play a single NHL game. But his other 6 misses were all later round picks, with Collins being the earliest at 90th. Again, Sheds' performance will surely change as we get more data in the coming years.



Year-by-year performance:


I guess Sheds doesn't like picks - over 3 years, having only made a total of 7 picks. It's been mostly "meh", as mentioned, but Debrincat in 2017 was an excellent pick. The little guy sure can score. It will be interesting to see how Sheds does as we analyze more data in the coming year.


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