GM Historical Draft Rankings #1 - #2
Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)
I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.
Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.
Rankings So Far:
#25 - Rich
#24 - Larry
#23 - Steve
#22 - Tim S
#21 - Rob B
#20 - Tyler B
#19 - Jared M
#18 - Joseph B
#17 - Garrett H
#16 - Devon C
#15 - Junya K
#14 - Joe B
#13 - Rex L
#12 - Tyler R
#11 - Leon Y
#10 - Joel M
#9 - Eric F
#8 - Bryce S
#7 - Eric D
#6 - Jordan H
#5 - Kevin S
#4 - Anthony C
#3 - Ty S
#2: Dave Y: 0.83GP & 1.57Pts
Dave slides into 2nd place, with several strong years of drafting under his belt. His average numbers for GP and Pts performance are not as strong as some guys with lower ranks but he has more data to work from (64 total picks), and thus a higher confidence in these numbers.
Highlights and Lowlights:
|Best GP||42.89||Mats Zuccarello||87|
|Worst GP||-25.54||Colten Teubert||21|
|Best Pts||35.09||Ryan O'Reilly||13|
|Worst Pts||-11.20||Colten Teubert||21|
Dave made a great pick with Zucarello in the 3rd round in 2010, as well as a homerun on 13th OV Ryan O-Reilly. His biggest miss is Colten Teubert at 21st in 2009. Some other quality picks include Schlemko (140th 2007), Alec Martinez (89th 2008), Kampfer (195th 2008), Hoffman (63rd 2010), Erik Haula (118th 2010) and Sundqvist (102nd 2013). For the most part, Dave has hit on all his first rounders, except for "The Disaster" of 2009, when he took Tedenby, Teubert and Del Zotto all in the first round... oopsie!
Mostly average drafting for Dave over the years, but his overall ranking is lifted by the strong draft he had in 2010. That draft included O'Reilly, Hoffman, Zuccarello and Haula in the 5 picks he made!! The only miss was 3rd rounder Toni Rajala. Dave should know better than to draft someone named Toni. As time passes and this big year gets washed out by more data and more picks, it will be interesting to see if Dave can hold his spot near the top of the rankings. I suspect not, since most other draft years were pretty average for Dave.
#1: Jesse V: 5.21GP & 2.36Pts
Jesse is crowned the best drafter in the BRHL2. And its not even close (AINEC) - I learded that from the chat! Jesse has drafted at total of 86 players, and on average each one plays 5 more games per year and scores 2+ more points per year than typical for their draft position. Thats actually very impressive, considering most players after about the 3rd or 4th round never even make the NHL.
Highlights and Lowlights:
|Best GP||71.63||Colin White||16|
|Worst GP||-33.54||Leland Irving||18|
|Best Pts||35.84||Brayden Point||38|
|Worst Pts||-14.88||Leland Irving||18|
Jesse should know better than to take a goalie that early. So risky. That said, he certainly has more hits than misses. Colin White probably isn't really his best ever pick, but he has played a lot of games since he was drafted, so he comes in high here. Point was an exceptional pick at 38th overall. Some of Jesse's best picks include Teddy Purcell (182nd 2007), Brendan Gallagher (64th 2011), Antoine Roussel (85th 2013), Arvidsson, Montour, Heinen, Czarnik Vatrano and Goodrow (42nd, 52nd, 62nd, 160th, 177nd and 185th in 2015) and Bratt, Pionk, Rosen, Kampf (154th, 156th, 175th and 199th in 2017). Thats some impressive shit! His only first round misses include the aforementioned Irving and maybe Sonny Milano (24th in 2015). Julien Gauthier is maybe too early to tell (15th in 2017).
Jesse started weak way back in 2007. I think he quit the league for a few years and went and took "Drafting 101" class somewhere, because ever since he came back in 2011 he has been hitting it outta the park. There are several draft classes in there where he came away with more than 5 legit NHLers, some of whom were picked quite late. Honestly, nobody even comes close. I think Jesse has like 3 drafts that are better than any single draft by any other GM. Insane.
Well done Jesse.