For this article, we are going to dive into the “History” tab on the BRHL Stats sheet to see if we can get a sense of the realistic expectations for draft picks. We will also apply these expectations to a “case study” to try to evaluate the infamous Mikheyev trade. We will perform our analysis by reviewing a few of the figures that are available on the tab. These figures are all based entirely on the BRHL drafting history from 2007-2019 (inclusive). I’ve excluded the 2020-2022 drafts as those picks simply have not had sufficient time to develop and provide reliable statistics.

Probability of Exceeding 100 Games Played

Our first figure shows a really simple snapshot of the probability that a player drafted in a particular round will play at least 100 NHL games. It’s a fairly low bar, especially for players drafted in the early first round, but it does give a nice way to differentiate those picks that “made it” and those that did not.

Looking at the orange bars, which represent overall performance, we can see that a 1^st round pick is got close to an 80% chance of exceeding 100 games. This is pretty decent, but lets not lose sight of the fact that this means more than 1 in 5 picks in the first round don’t even play 100 games. As we look into later rounds, we see the probabilities change drastically from rounds 1 to 2 and 2 to 3, then taper off. Again, looking at the overall (orange) bars, we see that a 2^nd round pick has only about a 45% chance of exceeding 100 games, followed by less than 30% for the third round and a similar percentage for the 4^th round. Rounds 5-7 are all similar (interestingly enough) at about 15-18%.

Also interesting to see is the difference between Forwards, Defense and Goalies (or perhaps, lack therof). There is little deviation between the overall numbers and those specific to Forwards and Defense. Certainly not enough of a difference to be statistically significant. Goalies do have lower percentages, but considering goalies play fewer games overall (about 2/3) of the games of skaters, it’s not surprising I guess to see the percentages for goalies are around 4/5 of those for skater.

Games Played by Draft Position

This figure builds on the discussion we started with the previous figure, but provides more granularity by braking it down by pick, and giving actual expected performance and not simply likelihood of exceeding the magic 100 game threshold. What I love about this figure is the drastic drop-off we see in the top 30 or so picks. It’s shocking to see the difference between the beginning and end of the 1^st round. Looking at the trendline (orange), which represents the averages, we see that while the #1 overall pick has historically played 59 games per season (from the first season after their BRHL draft until today), the 32^nd has historically only played about 20. For a player with a 15 year career. That amounts to 885 games vs only 300. Keep in mind this is for all players, so the expectations for skaters would be a bit higher, and for goalies would be a bit lower.

We see a transition in this figure from the end of the 1^st round until about the end of the 3^rd round, with the expected games played dropping to about 7.3 for picks 92. That’s barely above 100 games played over a 15 year career.

For the rest of the draft (rounds 4-7), we see very little difference in historical performance, with the value sitting fairly consistently at just over 6 games per season (about 90 over a 15 year career).

Of course, for each pick, some will end up performing above these numbers, and some will never play a game. The numbers I am presenting represent the historical averages).

Points by Draft Position

Where the previous figured presented expected (historical) games played by draft position, this one presents points per year (from year after drafted to today). It only includes draft picks who were not goalies. What’s shocking about this figure is just how much the numbers fall off a cliff through the 1^st round. A number 1 pick would be expected to put up about 46 points per year (690 over a 15 year career); whereas the 32^nd pick would only put up about 7 per year (105 over a 15 year career). That is shocking to me. We see the number transition through the 2^nd round to only 3.2 points/year for pick 64, and eventually level out at about 2.6 points/year (39 career point) for picks in rounds 3-7. Again, these are averages, and of course some players will do much better, and some will never score a point.

Wins by Draft Position

Turning our attention to goalies, we see a whole lot of random. Despite the fact that earlier rounds have shown to produce more goalies who play over 100 games (see the first figure in this article), this figure shows that there really is not much correlation between draft position and wins. The data is so scattered in fact that the trendline developed with non-linear regression (like in the previous figures) was meaningless, and I’m simply showing the overall average in this figure. There really doesn’t seem to be  much correlation between goalie success and draft position. If you look closely, you will see that for the first two rounds, the blue line (actual picks) does generally spend more time above the average than below), so there is some small correlation there, but it’s very difficult to capture.

A Case Study -  The Ilya Mikhayev Trade

Lets take what we just learned and apply it now to everybody’s favourite trade. The Wings moved Ilya Mikheyev and PIT5 for SJ1 and CAR3 (all 2023 picks). Mikheyev has averaged 38.4 GP/Year and 20Pts/Year since he was drafted. His draft wasn’t long ago, so those numbers will grow as he continues to be a regular NHL player, but for now, lets take them at face value. Below is a table that summarizes the expected GP and Pts for Mikheyev along side all three picks involved in the trade. Draft positions for the picks are based on standings as of today.

Look at that. A few amazing things to see here. First of all, the best asset in the deal, by far, is Mikhayev. Secondly there is hardly any difference in expected outcome between PIT5 and CAR3. That SJ1 might turn into something, but on average, it will be less than Mikhayev. The only saving grace here, of course, is that the picks are going to have many more years of team control than Mikhayev – if the pan out. Speaking of that – what are the odds that the SJ1 turns into nothing? Hard to say. We know there is about a 20% chance that a 1^st rounder busts, and about a 55% chance that a 2^nd rounder busts. So we could probably be safe to assume that a late 1^st rounder like that SJ picks will probably have about a 35% chance of completely busting.